According to a recent report from an NBC affiliate in Montana titled “Drill, Baby, Drill”, US gasoline prices could fall below 3 dollars a gallon by the end of 2025. The report links the recent decline in gasoline prices to President Trump’s pro-energy policies.

The article begins: “Oil and gas production has recently seen a sharp rise thanks to President Donald Trump’s pro-energy policies.”

Before assessing recent production trends, it is worth reviewing the key events that have shaped US oil output over the past 24 years.

During George W. Bush’s presidency, oil production continued the gradual decline that had begun in the early 1970s. But producers were perfecting the combination of horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing, which soon led to the “shale boom.” Oil prices climbed steadily, reaching 100 dollars a barrel in February 2008, creating a powerful incentive for fracking.

Barack Obama’s presidency saw the largest expansion of oil and gas production in US history. Despite being viewed as hostile to fossil fuels, technology and market forces drove output sharply higher. An exception came in late 2014, when Saudi Arabia led OPEC in boosting supply despite falling prices to undercut US shale producers, triggering a collapse from above 100 dollars to under 30 dollars per barrel in 2015–16. Shale producers adapted, cut costs, and survived. By late 2016, OPEC changed course, forming the historic OPEC+ alliance with Russia and others to cut production and restore prices, which helped US production rebound.

When Donald Trump took office in January 2017, US oil production returned to growth, surpassing the 1970 monthly output record in October of his first year. Trump enacted pro-oil policies, but the OPEC+ cuts that lifted prices were the dominant factor behind renewed growth. It is often overlooked that higher oil prices meant average US gasoline prices actually rose during Trump’s first three years in office—until the COVID-19 pandemic.

The pandemic briefly drove oil prices negative and cut US production by 3 million barrels per day in April–May 2020. That was the only time during Trump’s first term when gasoline fell below 2 dollars a gallon.

By the time Joe Biden took office in January 2021, oil output had recovered to 11.2 million barrels per day, still 1.8 million below pre-pandemic highs. Growth resumed in Biden’s second year, with record oil and gas production in his final two years. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine pushed prices higher and encouraged further US output, underscoring the importance of global forces over domestic politics.

Across the past 24 years, macro factors—such as fracking, OPEC+ decisions, weather shocks, and demand cycles—have outweighed presidential policies in shaping output and prices.

Trump’s Second Term and 2025 Trends

Comparing the first seven months of Trump’s second term to Biden’s years, the data show no sudden surge. Output in February 2025 rebounded from a weather-related dip, similar to earlier recoveries under Biden. Monthly highs in 2023 and 2024 under Biden exceeded Trump’s pre-pandemic records, and 2025 is on pace for another annual record, though growth is slowing. Rig counts have declined this year, contradicting claims of a drilling boom.

Natural gas shows a similar long-term upward trajectory, with no sudden acceleration in 2025.

Why Are Gasoline Prices Falling?

Gasoline prices are down this year mainly because global oil prices have fallen. Supply is rising: OPEC+ will fully unwind its voluntary 2.2 million barrels per day cuts by September 2025, a year earlier than planned. Meanwhile, the US, Brazil, and Guyana are all boosting output. Global supply is expected to increase by 2.5 million barrels per day in 2025, outpacing demand.

On the demand side, consumption has disappointed in China, India, and Brazil, while OECD demand is flat, with Japan hitting multi-decade lows and US GDP growth slowing to just 1.4%.

Inventories have risen for five straight months, reaching a 46-month high of 7.8 billion barrels worldwide—classic evidence of oversupply, often preceding price downturns.

Conclusion

Falling gasoline prices today are not the product of any single politician’s actions, but of a global surge in supply colliding with weak demand. Historically, lower oil prices were a clear win for the US when it was the world’s largest importer. But today, as a net exporter, the US faces a mixed impact: cheaper gasoline for consumers, but weaker revenues for a key industry and wider trade deficits.

In short, gasoline prices are shaped by global supply, demand, and investment trends, not White House slogans. Political claims oversimplify; the real story is larger, global, and far more complex.

US stock indexes rose on Wednesday as investors closely awaited Nvidia’s earnings release.

Later today, after the market close, Nvidia will report results, with expectations for a 51% year-on-year revenue increase to 52.96 billion dollars.

Concerns over Federal Reserve independence remain after US President Donald Trump dismissed Fed board member Lisa Cook.

As for trading, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.3% (equivalent to 111 points) to 45,529 points as of 16:42 GMT, while the broader S&P 500 gained 0.2% (equivalent to 10 points) to 6,476 points. The Nasdaq Composite added 0.1% (equivalent to 22 points) to 21,566 points.

Copper prices fell on Wednesday, ending a four-session winning streak, pressured by a stronger dollar, rising inventories, and concerns about demand in China, the world’s largest metals consumer.

The benchmark three-month contract on the London Metal Exchange (LME) fell 0.7% to 9,772 dollars a metric ton in official trading, after hitting a two-week high of 9,862 dollars on Tuesday.

Still, copper on the LME is up 11% this year, recovering from a more than 16-month low of 8,105 dollars in early April.

Eva Manthey, commodities analyst at ING, said: “Chinese demand is showing signs of slowing, amid headwinds facing the economy, including tariffs and a struggling property sector.”

Chinese data were mixed, showing that industrial sector profits fell for the third consecutive month in July, amid weak demand and ongoing producer price deflation. However, the decline was smaller than in May and June, while manufacturing sector profits rose 6.8%.

Alastair Munro, senior base metals strategist at Marex, noted that the improvement may be the result of a two-month government campaign to curb excess industrial capacity, including in metals. He added: “Metals prices are holding up well given the weak macroeconomic environment and the stronger dollar.”

A stronger dollar also weighed on metals after US President Donald Trump dismissed Federal Reserve board member Lisa Cook, renewing investor concerns over the central bank’s independence.

A rising US currency makes dollar-priced metals more expensive for buyers using other currencies.

Rising inventories in LME-registered warehouses and on the US Comex exchange also pressured market sentiment. Wednesday’s data showed LME copper stocks rose by another 1,100 tons, bringing the increase since late June to 72%, at 156,100 tons. Comex inventories have nearly tripled since the start of the year.

Among other metals, aluminum on the LME fell 0.8% to 2,616 dollars a ton, zinc dropped 1% to 2,785 dollars, nickel slid 1.1% to 15,120 dollars, while lead rose 0.2% to 1,992.50 dollars, and tin gained 0.8% to 34,465 dollars.

Bitcoin edged higher on Wednesday after dropping in the previous session to a seven-week low, as risk appetite remained weak following US President Donald Trump’s attempt to oust Federal Reserve board member Lisa Cook, raising fresh concerns over central bank independence.

As of 02:32 a.m. Eastern time (06:32 GMT), the world’s largest cryptocurrency was up 1.2% at 111,272.4 dollars.

Bitcoin had fallen below 109,000 dollars to its lowest level in seven weeks after a large “whale” transaction, with reports showing about 24,000 tokens were liquidated.

The cryptocurrency has now lost more than 10% from its record high in August above 124,000 dollars, erasing much of the gains built on expectations of a Fed pivot toward rate cuts.

Concerns over Fed independence weaken risk appetite

Trump announced Tuesday he had immediately dismissed Cook over allegations of “mortgage fraud,” accusing her of providing misleading information about her housing status in 2021 loan documents.

The allegations had been referred to the Justice Department by the Federal Housing Finance Agency, but Cook denied them, calling her dismissal “illegal.”

Her attorney, Abbe Lowell, said he would file a lawsuit against the administration, arguing the dismissal lacked legal basis and violated the Federal Reserve Act, which stipulates board members may only be removed “for cause.”

Markets are now reassessing the Fed’s rate path, with short-term cut expectations rising, though uncertainty remains high over institutional independence and legal challenges.

Trump Media and Crypto.com launch crypto treasury firm

Trump Media & Technology Group (listed on Nasdaq under ticker DJT) and exchange platform Crypto.com said Tuesday they will launch a crypto treasury company through a SPAC merger, designed to accumulate Cronos (CRO) tokens, according to official filings and company announcements.

The new entity, to be named Trump Media Group CRO Strategy, will be structured as a merger with Yorkville Acquisition Corp and listed on Nasdaq.

Initial financing plans include about 1 billion dollars in CRO tokens, 200 million dollars in cash, 220 million dollars in warrants, and a 5-billion-dollar credit line from a Yorkville affiliate.

As part of the deal, Trump Media intends to purchase roughly 105 million dollars worth of CRO tokens, while Crypto.com will invest in Trump Media shares.

Following the announcement, CRO token prices jumped significantly, while Trump Media shares also rose.